from OKORO CHINEDU in Lagos, Nigeria
LAGOS – THE non-oil economy has maintained its role as the primary driver of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as the oil sector continues its decline, in Nigeria.
Latest accounts by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), show that GDP in Africa’s largest economy grew by 3,52 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022.
This is higher than the 2,25 percent y/y expansion in the previous quarter, but slightly weaker than the 3,98 percent y/y growth it delivered in the year-earlier period.
The growth marks the ninth consecutive quarter of expansion, FBN Quest noted.
Its expectation was for a modest growth of 2,9 percent.
The out-performance relative to the bank’s forecast was mainly because of stronger than anticipated growth of 2,05 percent and 2,83 percent delivered by the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
“As expected, the non-oil economy was the primary driver of GDP growth,” FBN Quest stated.
It expanded by 4,44 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, up from 4,27 percent in the previous quarter.
In terms of contribution, the non-oil sector’s share of GDP increased to 95,66 percent from 94,34 percent the third quarter in 2022.
The key growth drivers were information and communication, trade, transportation, and financial institutions. Other key drivers were agriculture and manufacturing.
Oil GDP shrank by 13,38 percent compared with a 22,67 percent contraction in third quarter 2022.
According to NBS, Nigeria’s average crude oil output during the quarter was 1,34 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 1,5mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022, and below the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries quota of 1.74mbpd.
Although the tertiary sector (services) and the primary sector (agriculture) expanded by 5,69 percent and 2,05 percent respectively, the secondary sector (industries) contracted by 0,94 percent.
Given the floods that submerged farmlands and reduced agricultural output toward the end of third quarter 2022, FBN Quest had anticipated a more muted growth for the agriculture GDP.
The bank forecasts GDP growth of around 3,2 percent in 2023, driven mainly by growth in the non-oil sector.
– CAJ News